Earthquakes in SP3: Mechanism, Scale Variation, and Non-Predictive Hazard Flagging

Earthquakes exhibit a wide range of magnitudes, from frequent microseismic events to rarebut catastrophic ruptures spanning hundreds of kilometers. Standard elastic reboundmodels account for stress accumulation and release but struggle to explain why somefaults dissipate energy continuously while others remain locked for centuries before failingcatastrophically. In this paper, earthquakes are examined within the SP3 (Space-Phase–Saturation–Memory) framework, in which deformation history is retained not only in matterbut also in the adjacent space-phase. In SP3, earthquake magnitude is governed primarilyby the spatial coherence of space-phase saturation and memory, rather than byinstantaneous stress alone. This perspective naturally explains rupture arrest versusrunaway propagation, irregular recurrence intervals, and the suppression of small eventsprior to large earthquakes. A non-predictive, state-based hazard-flagging approach isproposed, emphasizing physically grounded indicators of elevated risk without assertingdeterministic timing (Aki & Richards, 2002; Scholz, 2002).