From Static Risk Maps to Dynamic Risk Communication: A Conceptual Critique of GIS-AHP and a Dynamic Framework for Multi-Hazard Early Warning in Volcanic Tropical Regions

This preprint presents a conceptual and critical examination of static flood and multi-hazard risk mapping practices, particularly those based on GIS–Analytic Hierarchy Process (GIS-AHP), in the context of dynamic volcanic tropical environments. The manuscript reframes risk maps as communicative artefacts that shape institutional decisions and public perceptions of safety. It argues that the most consequential limitation of static risk mapping lies in the production and communication of false negatives—areas labelled as “low risk” that subsequently experience severe impacts—under conditions of climate-driven extremes, rapid land-use change, and cascading hazards. The paper introduces the Dynamic Volcanic-Tropical GIS-AHP (DVT-AHP) framework as a conceptual approach rather than a finalized operational model. The framework illustrates how risk assessment and early warning systems can move toward temporally adaptive, impact-based risk communication by integrating dynamic environmental triggers. Preprint notice: This manuscript has not undergone peer review. It represents an evolving conceptual contribution and may be substantially revised, expanded, or reframed for submission to a peer-reviewed journal. The present version should not be cited as a validated or finalized methodology.