Decision Making Under Radical Uncertainty

In boardrooms and business schools alike, decision-makers cling to tools designed for a world that no longer exists. Discounted cash flows, probability distributions, and Monte Carlo simulations all assume that uncertainty can be tamed with better data and sharper models. This book argues that such assumptions are not merely optimistic but dangerous. Drawing on insights from complexity science, evolutionary biology, and behavioral economics, Decision-Making Under Radical Uncertainty offers a fundamentally different framework for navigating a world of unknown unknowns, regime shifts, and non-linear collapse. It replaces the false comfort of prediction with the genuine resilience of positioning, showing leaders how to build organizations that thrive not by forecasting the future but by preparing for futures they cannot imagine. This is not a book about managing risk; it is a book about flourishing when risk itself becomes unmeasurable.