Strategic Coordination Capacity and Transformational Thresholds in National Development Trajectories

Many developing and middle-income countries have implemented institutional reforms and increased investment in science, technology, and innovation, yet have failed to achieve sustained structural transformation. This article extends the Theory of National Transformative Capability by conceptualizing strategic coordination capacity and placing transformational thresholds at the center of analysis to clarify the non-linear nature of development. It argues that national transformation occurs only when strategic coordination capacity is strong enough to integrate reforms and enable the system to cross critical thresholds. Once these thresholds are crossed, positive development feedback loops are activated, generating a point of no return in which structural upgrading and high-quality growth become endogenous to the system, making a return to low-development trajectories increasingly difficult. The paper contributes a theoretical framework that explains why countries with broadly similar policies experience markedly different long-term development outcomes.