Вырожденность Ωm − M в ΛCDM: фундаментальный дефект в оценке космологических параметров

Problem: A statistically significant degeneracy (p < 10−6) is found betweenthe matter density parameter Ωm and supernova absolute magnitude M in stan-dard ΛCDM analysis of Pantheon+ data. This degeneracy catastrophically reducesBayesian inference efficiency (ESS < 100) and questions the reliability of parameterestimates.Solution: A simple modification (Spatio-Material Continuum, SMC model) isproposed with one additional parameter β describing weak evolution of effectivedark energy density. This modification simultaneously: (1) eliminates Ωm − Mdegeneracy, (2) improves MCMC efficiency by 7.3×, (3) yields H0 = 73.15 ± 0.42km/s/Mpc consistent with SH0ES, (4) maintains agreement with BAO and CMBat 1.5σ.Method: Full Bayesian comparison of three models: ΛCDM, ΛCDM with fixedPlanck parameters, and SMC model using Pantheon+ data (1701 SNe) with modernMCMC methods (R-hat < 1.01, ESS > 400).Result: SMC model is statistically preferred with Bayes factor > 200 : 1 againststandard ΛCDM. The effect is independent of data selection and calibration method. 10.5281/zenodo.18164895