Q3 Criticality and a Near‑Term Forecast for μ→e Conversion and μ→3e from an ε‑Lattice Bridge (CGFP)
Abstract
This deposit contains a preregistered + post-analysis research bundle for the CGFP (Closure‑Gated Flavor Projection) program within the Maldonado ε‑lattice / Bridge Algebra framework, focused on charged‑lepton flavor violation (CLFV): - μ→e conversion (Au, Al)- μ→3e Core scientific emphasis:1) A sharp “Q3 criticality” behavior: small changes in the Q3 coefficient n3 drive large changes in closure viability and predicted CLFV rates, suggesting an integer‑like critical point near n3 ≈ 22.2) A preregistered (“lock”) forecast module for CLFV, plus derived key numbers and near‑term experimental detectability estimates. Key numerical forecasts (closure‑allowed posterior; current SINDRUM‑II(Au) bound shown for context):- BR(μ→3e): median 1.29e−17; 90% interval [2.32e−18, 2.53e−17] - CR(μ⁻ + Au → e⁻ + Au): median 3.16e−13; 90% interval [5.68e−14, 6.19e−13] vs SINDRUM‑II(Au) limit 7e−13 - CR(μ⁻ + Al → e⁻ + Al) (via overlap scaling from Au): median 1.10e−13; 90% interval [1.98e−14, 2.16e−13] with r(Al/Au) ≈ 0.349 Near‑term detectability estimates (using SES-style back-of-envelope conversions included in the bundle):- COMET Phase‑I (Al): P(N≥1) ≈ 0.9999- Mu2e Run‑I‑ish (Al): P(N≥1) ≈ 0.9999- Mu2e / COMET Phase‑II (Al): P(N≥1) ≈ 1.0000- Mu3e Phase‑I: P(N≥1) ≈ 0.008- Mu3e Phase‑II: P(N≥1) ≈ 0.147 Contents:- README + CITATION metadata- Onepager PDF (summary of the CGFP next-level result set)- Preregistration lock note (v134)- Q3 criticality note and supporting tables- Key numbers CSV, detection odds CSV, expected event yields CSV Status / scope:This is a theoretical + computational forecasting bundle intended to be falsifiable by current/near-term CLFV experiments. It is not peer-reviewed.
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 6 January 2026
- Language
- EN