Low-Bit Quantization, Taiwan Dependence, and Japan's Strategic AI Role

This paper examines how extreme low-bit quantization—such as BitNet b1.58, ParetoQ, and sub‑2‑bit inference—reshapes geopolitical risks in AI infrastructure. Advanced AI training remains heavily reliant on Taiwan, where TSMC produces over 90% of cutting-edge GPUs. This concentration creates a structural vulnerability in global AI development. Recent advances in low-bit inference allow large models to run efficiently on CPUs, NPUs, and edge devices, reducing dependence on centralized GPU clusters. Japan, with projects like Rapidus (2nm GAA), FUJITSU-MONAKA (Arm-based 2nm CPU), and ultra-low-power edge accelerators, emerges as a “third pole” of efficient AI. By combining software efficiency with hardware innovation, Japan strengthens distributed deterrence, mitigates Taiwan dependence, and contributes to a more stable multipolar technological order.