COMPREHENSIVE FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT OF COSTS AND RETURNS IN ESTABLISHING A GRAIN FARM

This study examines the impact of modern irrigation systems and precision agriculture technologies on grain crop productivity in the Agdam region of Azerbaijan, with a particular focus on wheat, barley, and late corn production. Using official agricultural statistics from the State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan for the period 2015–2024, the research analyzes historical yield trends and regional productivity differences. Time-series forecasting is conducted using the Error–Trend–Seasonality (ETS) model to project crop yields for the period 2025–2035 under baseline conditions. To capture the effects of technological advancement, forecasted results are adjusted based on empirical evidence from international studies and regional pilot projects employing pivot irrigation and precision sowing and fertilization technologies. The findings indicate that Agdam consistently outperforms national average yields for both wheat and barley, reflecting favorable agro-climatic conditions. The adoption of modern irrigation systems is projected to increase average wheat and barley yields by approximately 25% compared to traditional rain-fed farming practices, with potential yields reaching 6.5–6.8 t/ha for wheat and over 5.3 t/ha for barley by 2035 under optimal conditions. Comparative analysis with real production data from Samukh and Tovuz districts confirms the robustness of these projections, as pivot-irrigated fields demonstrate significantly higher productivity than regional and national averages. For late corn cultivated as a second crop, linear regression forecasts indicate stable yield growth within the range of 3.5–4.7 t/ha over the forecast horizon. Overall, the results demonstrate that the integration of modern irrigation infrastructure and precision agrotechnologies can substantially enhance grain productivity, mitigate climate-related risks, and improve agricultural efficiency in semi-arid regions. The study provides empirical support for investment in irrigation modernization as a key strategy for sustainable agricultural development and food security in Azerbaijan.