Evaluating the Nexus Between National Social Investment Programmes and Poverty Reduction in Nigeria

Abstract: This research critically examines the nexus between Nigeria’s National Social Investment Programmes (NSIPs) and sustainable poverty reduction. The study focuses on four flagship initiatives, N-Power, Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT), Government Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), and the National Home-Grown School Feeding Programme (NHGSFP) designed to address multidimensional poverty and promote inclusive development. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining both Descriptive analyses with Ordinal Logistic Regression analysis of 5,000 synthetic household data points to assess program effectiveness. The analysis evaluated changes in income levels, employment status, and access to basic services among beneficiaries. Findings reveal that 40% of the total population participated in NSIPs, and among the four NSIPs, N-power beneficiaries has the highest participation of 60%., followed by CCT and GEEP before NHGSFP. The regression analysis confirms that NSIP participation significantly improves poverty outcomes in Nigeria as these beneficiaries experience 97% of increase in average monthly income which made the number of non-poor household to triple while poverty dropped by 60%. However, the study emphasizes that long-term poverty reduction requires enhanced programme targeting, consistent funding, and institutional reforms. The research contributes to the discourse on social protection in developing economies and offers policy recommendations for strengthening the sustainability of poverty alleviation efforts in Nigeria.