Innovation to Cognitive Closure: Mechanisms, Formal Model, and Empirical Roadmap

We present a theory and a moderately formal model explaining why intense, self-generated innovation following substantial learning can produce path dependence, paradigm locking, and ultimately cognitive closure --- a state in which an agent or discipline becomes increasingly unable to absorb novel external information. Drawing on cognitive-science notions (cognitive entrenchment), philosophy of science (paradigm theory), and dynamical-systems modeling, we offer: (1) a conceptual mechanism that links internal generative success to decreasing external receptivity; (2) a parametrized dynamical model that captures the competition between internal self-consistency dynamics and external input assimilation; (3) formal propositions establishing conditions for lock-in and for the exponential suppression of orthogonal input components; and (4) empirical and simulation protocols to test the theory at individual and collective (discipline) scales. We argue that cognitive closure is an intrinsic possible outcome of successful innovation when internal selection pressures dominate, and we propose interventions (plasticity modulation, heterarchical exposure, orthogonal perturbations) that can restore openness without destroying accumulated internal coherence.