Metabolic Limits of Complexity A Thermodynamic Framework for Civilizational Collapse

This paper develops a thermodynamic and structural framework for understanding why complex systems collapse—not through ignorance or neglect, but through successful problem-solving continued past the point of reversibility. Extending Joseph Tainter’s theory of diminishing returns on complexity, the analysis reframes collapse as a phase transition driven by irreversible commitments that eliminate adaptive freedom. Using metabolic and biological analogies, the paper distinguishes integrative complexity from accretive “scar-tissue” growth, identifying early warning signals of lock-in and explaining why late-stage reform fails. The framework is diagnostic rather than predictive, with applications across political, economic, technological, and organizational systems.