Brazil–Global South Energy Logistics: Production–Export Capacity Gaps and Tanker Market Scenarios (2026–2030)

This report presents a strategic scenario analysis focused on the structural gap between Brazil’s energy production growth and its export logistics capacity, with emphasis on offshore-to-maritime constraints, tanker market dynamics, and South Atlantic trade flows. The analysis examines how production expansion is increasingly constrained by maritime infrastructure, vessel availability, regulatory pressure, and operational bottlenecks rather than upstream capacity. The study integrates scenario modeling, tanker market elasticity, and regulatory stress testing to support strategic planning, contracting decisions, and policy assessment under conditions of logistical constraint and geopolitical uncertainty.