Regime-Conditional Factor Rotation: Testing TSF Timing Signals for Defensive Factor Alpha Generation

Defensive factor strategies (low volatility, low beta, low momentum) systematically underperform during bull markets, creating a structural problem for factor fund managers who lose clients precisely when risk management is most valuable. This study tests whether Temporal Structural Forecasting (TSF) timing signals can solve this problem by generating alpha for defensive factors during bull market conditions, and whether regime-conditional factor rotation (FLIP strategies) can outperform static single-factor approaches. The preregistered analysis covers 346 S&P 500 stocks across 20 years (2006-2025), testing 18 hypotheses across 11 universes, 6 diversification levels, 4 time periods, and 18 TSF configurations. This document specifies the complete methodology, hypotheses, and confirmation criteria prior to data analysis.