Beyond Washington: The EU's role in the Sino-Japanese relation.

This paper analyses the expected role of the European Union (EU) within the bilateral Japan-China relation. While Japan and China remain deeply economically interdependent, their bilateral ties are marked by persistent normative and security tensions. Japan's current foreign policy strategy reflects a dual approach of conflict deterrence, grounded in its alliance with the United States (US) to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, and diplomatic engagement with China in areas such as supply chain resilience, climate issues and technology governance. Against this background, the EU has emerged as one of Japan’s main international partners. However, through a modified version of the capabilities-expectations gap (CEG) analytical lens, this study demonstrates that the EU-Japan relationship only partially addresses Japan’s core strategic concerns regarding China, which limits the potential for a deeper interregional alliance. The EU-Japan partnership documentation often avoids explicit alignment on issues such as territorial sovereignty and China-related maritime issues, which are among the most prominent concerns for Japan, while prioritising broader normative commitments and economic resilience instead. Based on qualitative analysis of recent EU-Japan agreements and Japanese documentation, this paper identifies that both EU and Japanese policymakers may view the EU as a valuable, expanding, but still limited actor in the key areas that dominate East Asian and Indo-Pacific regional security. The first section dives into the sources of tension in between China and Japan from the Japanese perspective. The second one analyses the state of the EU-Japan relation. In the third section, the author analyses where the first two concur to pinpoint in which specific areas the expected role of the EU in the Sino-Japanese relation might lay. Finally, the paper argues that a renovated understanding and alignment of priorities from the side of Europe towards Japan, especially in the light of the new defence capabilities that are being developed at the moment, is essential to preserving stability in East Asia amid declining US predictability and intensifying great power rivalry.