Forecasting the Flame: Simulating Wildfire Trajectories in the Northeast Mediterranean

IMPORTANT: Version 2 is the current version for the GCM projections. The GCM simulations in V. 1 are deprecated, however ERA5-Land simulations and the MODIS dataset in V. 1 are current. Simulation results for burned area and fire probability created in LPJ-GUESS simulations for the research article Forecasting the Flame: Simulating Wildfire Trajectories in the Northeast Mediterranean. Version 1 contains 3 datasets: LPJ-GUESS historical simulations with ERA5-Land, LPJ-GUESS future projections with five GCMs; ensemble median of burned area, fire probability and fire return period - deprecated, download V. 2 for the current version of these files MCD64A1 burned area dataset used in comparative analysis; FireCCI datasets (MODIS and Sentinel) which were used to assess observational uncertainty. Version 2 contains LPJ-GUESS future projections with five GCMs; ensemble median of burned area, fire probability and fire return period, bias correction quantile delta mapping (QDM) reference period 1995-2014 ERA5 Land reanalysis. This version is the updated version of the ensemble median of 5 GCMs. For all verifications and analysis it is recommended the researchers use this set.