An Imbalance-Based Indicator for Energy Accumulation and Release in Solar Active Regions: A 2014 Pilot Study

Solar flares are commonly modeled as sudden releases following gradual magnetic stress buildup, yet many existing stress or complexity indicators provide limited temporal separation between accumulation and release across different activity regimes. This work introduces a coarse-grained accumulation–dissipation imbalance indicator defined as a smoothed ratio between positive changes in a magnetic non-potentiality proxy and time-aggregated flare energy release. Using calendar year 2014 as a pilot period spanning high activity, quiet intervals, clustered extremes, and a pathological under-releasing regime (AR 12192), we evaluate whether elevated imbalance tends to precede major flare events while remaining restrained during quiet periods. Results are reported as a descriptive diagnostic rather than a forecasting model. Across quarters, elevated imbalance consistently aligns with pre-event buildup windows (hours to days) and provides temporal separation not captured by reactive flare-count baselines. A strengthened event-based evaluation for Q1 2014 further indicates measurable lead-time behavior and conditional lift beyond stress magnitude in matched-by-magnitude comparisons. Limitations include approximate flare-to-region association and incomplete accounting of continuous dissipation. The primary contribution is a regime-robust framing: large release events are associated not only with high stress, but with sustained imbalance between accumulation and dissipation.