Urbanisation, Land Surface and Atmospheric Temperature Interactions and Implications for Urban Heat Island Intensity in Abuja Municipal Area Council

This study investigates the interrelationships among urbanisation, land surface temperature (LST), atmospheric temperature, and UHI intensity, integrating multi-temporal satellite imagery (1994–2024), long-term meteorological records, land-use and land-cover (LULC) analysis, ecological indices, and residents’ perceptions. Results reveal that while atmospheric temperatures have increased moderately over three decades, LST has risen sharply, particularly in densely built-up areas, reflecting substantial heat retention by impervious surfaces. Vegetation cover declined drastically from over 60% in 1994 to under 10% by 2024, while built-up land expanded more than fivefold, exacerbating thermal stress. Ecological indices indicate fragmented green spaces, with more than half of the area classified as “Worst” for thermal mitigation. At the same time, survey responses highlight governance and funding constraints as significant barriers to the effective implementation of green infrastructure. The findings underscore the dual environmental and institutional drivers of UHI in AMAC and the critical role of green infrastructure in moderating urban heat. Recommendations include strategic urban greening, strengthened regulatory enforcement, and increased public awareness to enhance climate resilience.