MARATHON RUNNING IN AN ERA OF RISING TEMPERATURES: ASSESSING THE HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS RISK IN A SIMULATED STUDY

Background: Running a marathon is considered one of the most arduous tests of physical endurance for the human body. Climate change has heightened the risk of heat-related illnesses among marathon runners as global temperatures rise. Aim: This study aimed to investigate gender-specific percentages of runners at risk for heat-related conditions under varying Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) scenarios when the skin and core body temperature rise, offering vital insights into the impacts of climate change on athletes. Methods: A simulated cohort of male and female runners was designed based on demographic data available online from competitive marathoners. We used website (https://www.meteor.run/running-event/summary/Marathon) to access the data. Physiological parameters—resting and maximum heart rates, skin temperatures, and estimated core body temperatures—were integrated to calculate the Physiological Strain Score. Distribution plots were employed to visualize the proportion of runners vulnerable to heat-related illnesses at different WBGT levels. Results: Results indicate that 29.5% of female runners are at risk at WBGT when scapula skin temperature is 34°C, escalating to 38.4% at 35°C, 48.0% at 36°C, and 57.6% at 37°C. Male percentages are lower, yet significant, with 17.8% at risk at 34°C, increasing to 29.2% at 35°C, 40.5% at 36°C, and 50.7% at 37°C. Physiological strain scores exhibit a normal distribution among female runners at various skin temperatures, while the distribution among male runners remains more uniform. Conclusion: At WBGT with scapula skin temperature of 34°C or higher markedly amplify the risk of physiological strain in both genders, with females facing comparatively greater vulnerability. As climate change continues to intensify heat, humidity, and radiation, future marathon events will likely pose greater health risks to participants.