Critical Slowing Down Blind System Diagnostics. {CSD]

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Authors: KEVIN TAYLOR
Cited by: 0

Abstract

Critical Slowing Down (CSD) is a universal signature of complex systems approaching a critical transition or tipping point, where resilience to perturbations diminishes. As the system nears instability, recovery from small disturbances slows dramatically, internal correlations intensify and fluctuate ("flicker"), and variance in key observables rises — phenomena well-established in dynamical systems theory and observed in diverse fields like ecology, climate, and materials failure.This framework applies CSD principles to coupled seismic fault networks, treating them as continuously forced dynamical systems under ambient stochastic loading (e.g., microseisms from ocean waves). It detects loss of system-wide resilience using only continuous ambient seismic noise — no earthquake catalogs, event labels, magnitude thresholds, phase picks, or discrete events required. This makes the method fully blind, catalog-independent, and ideal for real-time, ongoing monitoring in under-instrumented or slow-deforming regions.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Ecosystem dynamics and resilience Seismic Waves and Analysis earthquake and tectonic studies

Publication details

Journal / source
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Publication date
10 January 2026