Critical Slowing Down Blind System Diagnostics. {CSD]
Abstract
Critical Slowing Down (CSD) is a universal signature of complex systems approaching a critical transition or tipping point, where resilience to perturbations diminishes. As the system nears instability, recovery from small disturbances slows dramatically, internal correlations intensify and fluctuate ("flicker"), and variance in key observables rises — phenomena well-established in dynamical systems theory and observed in diverse fields like ecology, climate, and materials failure.This framework applies CSD principles to coupled seismic fault networks, treating them as continuously forced dynamical systems under ambient stochastic loading (e.g., microseisms from ocean waves). It detects loss of system-wide resilience using only continuous ambient seismic noise — no earthquake catalogs, event labels, magnitude thresholds, phase picks, or discrete events required. This makes the method fully blind, catalog-independent, and ideal for real-time, ongoing monitoring in under-instrumented or slow-deforming regions.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
Seismic Waves and Analysis
earthquake and tectonic studies
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 10 January 2026