CDF II 𝑚𝑊 coherence bounds under public uncertainties: covariance-aware sub-fit pull lower bounds, recoil/lepton-scale closure audits, and span-obstruction diagnostics.

This record contains a public-data-only technical note and reproducibility code analysing the CDF Run-II (2022) W-boson mass outlier through a coherence/anchor framework motivated by Clock Neutrality (CNC). The note (i) derives covariance-aware lower bounds on the minimum coherent drift (“pull length”) required across the six published CDF sub-fits (electron/muon × mTm_TmT, pTℓp_T^\ellpTℓ, pTνp_T^\nupTν) to shift the BLUE-combined result by a fixed anchor offset bbb, using CDF-published uncertainties and correlations; and (ii) tests whether specific nuisance “families” (recoil, lepton scale, theory spans) can span the discrepancy once closure anchors are appended. The anchor offset uses the PDG 2025 world average with the CDF Run-II point removed (mW=80369.2±13.3m_W = 80369.2\pm 13.3mW=80369.2±13.3 MeV). This is a post-hoc analysis note (not a preregistration). It is intended to be audit-grade and reproducible; the included script reproduces all tables and robustness sweeps from the public inputs listed in the note.