Scapegoating as Structural Phase Misdiagnosis: Why Residual Pressure Produces Enemies Instead of Solutions

This paper reframes scapegoating not as a moral failure, political strategy, or misinformation problem, but as a structural phase misdiagnosis that emerges under residual pressure. Building on the Pre-JAM framework of mistimed intervention, the analysis shows how accumulated structural residues (ΦDark) reduce recoverability by eroding Buffer–Path Diversity–Rollback/Retry (BPR), narrowing the Intervention Window (IW), and increasing hysteresis (τ). As reversibility collapses, systems shift from recovery-oriented action to explanation-oriented stabilization. Under these conditions, narrative demand rises, and systems construct a Justification Scaffold (JS) that simplifies causality into emotionally coherent blame narratives. A Surface-Compensation Loop (SCL) then converts internal structural loss into external polarization and group alignment, stabilizing social resonance (|PLV|↑) without restoring recoverability. This process leads to the selection of a Minimal Resistance Object (MRO) as a phase-convenient blame anchor. The paper further shows how repeated scapegoating cycles automate oppositional orientation (D_S → −1), condensing into Joint Alignment Memory (JAM), where blame narratives become embedded in collective identity. Scapegoating is thus understood not as a domain-specific moral failure, but as a general phase-dynamic response to diagnostic collapse under residual pressure. Rather than offering prescriptive solutions, the paper proposes attribution prohibition conditions—structural zones in which causal attribution accelerates irreversibility and deepens structural damage. The contribution is diagnostic: identifying when explanation replaces repair, and when blame becomes a mechanism of path deletion rather than understanding. This work is an exploratory contribution situated within the IPCSALT–UPF phase-based meta-framework.