Jets and Variability as Diagnostics of Horizon-Scale Organization: A Testable Framework for Black Hole Accretion Dynamics

This note proposes a conservative, falsifiable framework to diagnose horizon-scale organization in black hole accretion systems using jets, variability, and polarization. Rather than introducing a new dynamical model, it formulates a structural hypothesis that distinguishes a purely stochastic “sink” interpretation from a regime-organized “coding knot” behavior, testable with existing observational archives. The framework defines explicit observables, null hypotheses, and falsification criteria, and is anchored to recent high-quality data from GRS 1915+105 (FAST polarization QPOs) and M87* (multi-epoch EHT polarization and variability). The work is intentionally conservative, model-agnostic, and designed for direct application in comparative and meta-analysis studies across black hole mass scales.