Sustainable Pathways for Forest and Land-Use Management in Tanzania: Forecasting to 2050 in the Context of Tanzania Dira 2050

Tanzania's forests and woodlands are vital for ecological stability, climate regulation, and rural livelihoods, covering approximately 19.8 million hectares (57% of land) in 1987. However, by 2025, this area is projected to decline to 16.2 million hectares, an 18% loss over 38 years. In contrast, agricultural land has expanded significantly from 12.3 million hectares (35%) to 19.7 million hectares (55%), a 60% increase, while settlement areas have tripled from 1.1 million hectares (3%) to 3.4 million hectares (10%). These changes are driven by agricultural extensification, charcoal production (which meets over 85% of household energy needs), and rapid infrastructure development. Between 2015 and 2025, Tanzania experienced an average annual forest loss of 469,000 hectares, making it one of Africa's top deforestation hotspots. To explore future land-use trajectories, a study utilized the Cellular Automata–Markov (CA– Markov) model, analyzing land-use and land-cover (LULC) data from 1987 to 2025, validated with high-resolution Sentinel-2 imagery. Two scenarios were modeled to 2050: a Business-asUsual (BAU) scenario, which assumes current trends continue, and a Policy-Aligned scenario that incorporates forest restoration, climate-smart agriculture, and enhanced community forestry systems as outlined in Tanzania Dira 2050. The BAU scenario predicts a decline in closed forest cover to 13.8 million hectares by 2050 (a further 15% reduction), with agricultural land increasing to 24.5 million hectares (+24%) and settlements rising to 5.8 million hectares (+71%). Conversely, the Policy-Aligned scenario suggests that forest cover could stabilize at around 16.0 million hectares, with agricultural expansion limited to 21.5 million hectares (+9%) and settlement growth moderated to 5.0 million hectares (+47%). Tanzania's land-use future is shaped by governance choices emphasizing integrated planning and evidence-based decisions. The study highlights the importance of incorporating science-based land management tools into national frameworks like Tanzania Dira 2050, which promotes inclusive green growth and climate resilience. By offering empirical projections and policy insights, the study contributes to discussions on land sustainability, providing a model for Sub-Saharan African nations to balance development needs with environmental stewardship in line with the SDGs and African Union Agenda 2063.