Natural Resources, Renewable Energy, and Environmental Sustainability in Central Asian Economies

Abstract This study examines the asymmetric effects of natural resource, renewable energy, economic growth, and technology on environmental sustainability in Central Asian (CA) economies. Using panel data for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, environmental sustainability is measured through ecological footprint (EF) and CO₂ emissions. To capture heterogeneity across different levels of environmental pressure, the study employs the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), which allows parameter estimates to vary across the conditional distribution of the dependent variables. The empirical results reveal that natural resource rents significantly exacerbate both EF and CO₂ emissions across all quantiles, with stronger effects observed at higher levels of ecological pressure for EF and at lower quantiles for CO₂ emissions. In contrast, renewable energy consumption contributes to environmental improvement by reducing EF across most quantiles and lowering CO₂ emissions particularly at higher emission levels. Economic growth is found to intensify environmental degradation throughout the distribution, indicating that current growth patterns in CA remain environmentally unsustainable. Technology consistently mitigates environmental pressure across all quantiles, with its impact strengthening as EF and emissions increase. These results underscore the importance of transitioning from resource-dependent growth toward renewable energy deployment and improved resource governance to achieve long-term environmental sustainability in CA economies. The study provides novel quantile-based evidence that supports differentiated and context-specific environmental policies in resource-rich emerging regions.