Two Visions for Myanmar's Federal Future: NUG vs. Kawthoolei

Myanmar’s post-coup landscape is defined not just by the clash between the junta and the resistance, but by a deeper contest over the nature of the state itself. This article explores the tension between two competing state-building projects: the National Unity Government’s (NUG) "holding-together federalism," derived from central legitimacy , and the Karen National Union’s (KNU) "coming-together federalism," built from the bottom up in Kawthoolei. By analyzing the fiscal, military, and administrative frictions in contested territories, I argue that the path to a stable union lies neither in centralizing command nor in fragmentation. Instead, the resistance must formalize an "asymmetric federalism" that recognizes the de facto sovereignty of ethnic states while maintaining a unified front against the collapsing praetorian state.