Optimizing Supply Chain Finance and Macroeconomic Factors: Impacts on Stock Returns of NASDAQ and Dow Jones-Listed U.S. Firms

Purpose - This paper aims to investigates the impact of supply chain finance and macroeconomic factors on stock returns of non-financial U.S. firms listed on DJIA30 and NASDAQ100 between 2000 and 2024.Design/methodology/approach - The authors use mixed-effect regression models and standard statistical tools that include descriptive statistics, multicollinearity test, hausman test, RESET test, heteroskedasticity test and hypothesis testing to assess the significance and direction of relationships between variables and stock returns.Findings - Results indicate that accounts payable turnover and inventory turnover have a positive, significant effect on stock returns, while accounts receivable turnover has a negative, significant effect. Firm size positively influences stock returns, whereas return on assets and debt-to-equity ratio are insignificant. Among macroeconomic factors, unemployment rate, GDP growth, and federal funds rate significantly and positively impact stock returns, while inflation shows an insignificant negative effect. The model explains a substantial variance in stock returns, validated by the Wald Chi² test (p < 0.000), confirming overall model significance.Originality/value - This paper contributes to integrates supply chain finance metrics with macroeconomic factors to examine their combined impact on stock returns over three decades. Unlike prior research focusing solely on financial ratios or macroeconomic indicators, this work highlights operational efficiency as a critical determinant of market performance. By employing a mixed-effect regression model and controlling for industry type, the study provides robust evidence of how supply chain and economic variables jointly shape stock returns. These insights offer novel contributions to corporate finance, supply chain management, and investment decision-making literature.