MSI 2.0: A Phase-Transition Model of Collective and Individual Cognition

This working paper introduces MSI 2.0 (Moral Simplification and Isolation), a formal phase-transition model describing how cognitive systems—individuals, institutions, and societies—respond to sustained overload. Under conditions of excessive complexity, uncertainty, or stress, systems tend to reduce internal variance through moral simplification and informational isolation, entering a frozen state characterized by rigidity, internal stability, and reduced adaptability. MSI 2.0 extends earlier descriptive formulations by introducing a formal phase structure, a minimal set of diagnostic variables, and necessary conditions for stable thawing and reorganization. The framework explains why many reform attempts fail, why sudden openness often produces chaos rather than renewal, and why successful transitions require synchronized growth in complexity tolerance and institutional containment rather than ideological replacement. Two historical cases—the USSR (1985–1991) and South Africa (1990–1995)—are analyzed as contrasting examples of failed and successful thawing. MSI 2.0 reframes political, social, and psychological transitions as predictable system dynamics rather than moral or ideological events. This paper is part of the FRAKTALJUMP / Digital Mirror Working Paper Series (2025–2026).