Amazon Dry Season Will Lengthen Under Future Climate

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Authors: Igor José Malfetoni Ferreira, Nathália S. Carvalho, Lina María Mercado, S. Sitch, Douglas Kelley, Chantelle Burton, Débora Joana Dutra, S. Thomas Barningham, Maria Lucia Ferreira Barbosa, Julia Mindlin, Celso H. L. Silva, Dhruba Jyoti Goswami
+2 more Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Liana O. Anderson
Cited by: 0

Abstract

This collection provides spatial projections of dry-season onset, end, and length across the Amazon Basin for mid-century (2041–2060) and late-century (2081–2100) under three emissions scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Projections were derived from a weighted multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 simulations, where model contributions were weighted according to their relative performance (RMSE). We estimated the monthly water balance from precipitation and evapotranspiration for the period 2000–2100, and calculated dry-season metrics from accumulated water deficits, providing a spatially explicit characterization of seasonal hydroclimatic dynamics. Dataset contents The dataset consists of GeoTIFF raster files representing the dry-season onset, end, and length for each scenario (Historical, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) and time period (2060 and 2100). File naming convention and variables Dry-season-onset_ _ .tif: raster representing the mean month of dry-season onset, ranging from 1 to 12. Dry-season-end_ _ .tif: raster representing the mean month of dry-season end, ranging from 1 to 12. Dry-season-length_ _ .tif: raster representing the number of consecutive months during which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation, resulting in water deficit. Values range from 1 to 12.

Fields of Study & Subjects

Climate variability and models Hydrology and Drought Analysis Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Publication details

Journal / source
Biblioteca Digital da Memória Científica do INPE (National Institute for Space Research)
Publication date
15 January 2026
Language
EN