Comparative Analysis of Civil Aircraft Trade in the USSR and Modern Russia: Causes of Decline, Current Challenges, and Development Prospects

The Soviet Union once stood as a major producer and exporter of civilian aircraft, accounting for approximately one-quarter of global civilian aircraft output in the late 1980s. In stark contrast, the post-1991 Russian civil aircraft industry experienced a dramatic collapse: annual production fell from 715 civilian aircraft in 1990 to only 56 by 1998, and to a mere 4 aircraft in 2000. This article provides a comparative analysis of civil aircraft trade in the USSR and modern Russia, examining the historical peak and subsequent decline of the sector. Key economic and policy factors behind Russia’s diminished aircraft manufacturing and exports are discussed, including the fragmentation of the Soviet industrial base, the loss of domestic and export markets, competition from Western manufacturers, and the impact of international trade regimes and sanctions. The paper also analyzes current challenges facing Russia’s civil aviation industry—such as limited industrial capacity, financing constraints, and intense global competition—and evaluates development prospects. Government-led strategies for revival are explored, including import substitution programs, new aircraft projects like the Sukhoi Superjet 100 and MC-21, and attempts at international partnerships. While Russia is pursuing an ambitious revitalization of its civil aircraft sector (including plans to produce 1,000 airliners by 2030), significant obstacles remain. The analysis concludes that without sustained investment, technological innovation, and integration into global markets (or the development of viable alternatives), Russia’s civil aviation industry will continue to lag, with its future hinging on the success of current import-substitution initiatives and the geopolitical climate shaping trade and cooperation.