Spatial analysis and prioritization (THINK NATURE CONCEPT DOCUMENT #4)

Executive summary. Many decisions are spatial, answering questions about where to do and where to not do things. They include those around land use zoning, targeting of new construction, and the anticipation of the effects of climate change on crops, pests, and invasive species. Such questions are relevant both for businesses and the society at large. Spatial decisions are especially relevant in the context of biodiversity, because species and habitat types are tied to locations that have environmental conditions suitable for them. Methods from spatial ecology and spatial prioritization can be used to answer questions around biodiversity. The first main class of methods introduced here is statistical spatial models used to explain the present or future occurrence areas of species of interest. These models work by correlating observations of species presence with ecologically relevant background variables that represent climate, geology, land use, etc. The second main class of methods is spatial prioritization, which can be used for data-rich, high-dimensional, analysis around biodiversity, land use, and societal considerations. Spatial prioritization can integrate and balance the distributions of thousands of species, habitat types, ecosystem services, pressures, costs, and administrative constraints to answer questions around ecologically well-informed land use planning or ecological impact avoidance in project design. This is not a trivial task, especially when data sets can include even tens of thousands of species distributions at a sub-hectare resolution nationally – and that would be just for species. The many applied uses of single-species spatial modelling include those for adaptive population control and harvesting, risk analysis, and predictions for invasive species and diseases. Applications of balanced prioritization include those around land-use zoning, spatial impact avoidance, and the targeting of nature-friendly action. These types of analyses can provide answers to concrete problems that arise when activities have land-use effects. Balanced prioritization accounts for not only the local properties of an area but also how it compares to the rest of the region, thereby combining the aspects of absolute and relative value. This document is #4 in Think Nature’s series of concept notes provided as a public service for those interested in understanding the interaction of people and biodiversity. ©︎ 2025 Think Nature Inc.