The Certification Budget of the Universe: Inflation, Dark Energy, and Gauge-Sector Expiry from a Decaying Accessibility Ceiling

The S8 Tension Issue: Finite-Access Gravitational Inference DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.18294330 Description: Recent cosmological observations reveal a persistent tension between the amplitude of matter fluctuations inferred from the cosmic microwave background and that measured by low-redshift weak-lensing surveys, commonly expressed as the $S_8$ tension. This work proposes a conservative, falsifiable framework in which this discrepancy is interpreted as a consequence of finite-access gravitational inference, rather than evidence for new particles or modifications of gravity. We formalize gravitational inference as a non-injective mapping from the underlying matter distribution to observables under realistic survey protocols, introducing an accessibility operator that encodes partial mode reconstruction due to projection effects, finite survey geometry, and scale mixing. Using a Fisher-optimal estimator analysis, we demonstrate that finite access produces a deterministic bias in inferred amplitude parameters, even under correct noise marginalization. The framework is constrained by early-universe “sealing” requirements imposed by CMB and BAO observations, ensuring consistency with high-redshift precision cosmology. At low redshift, the formalism naturally predicts suppressed $S_8$ estimates and a redshift-dependent recovery of the true amplitude, in qualitative agreement with current weak-lensing measurements. This work does not deny the existence of dark matter or dark energy. Instead, it shows that under finite observational access, the decomposition of gravitational effects into microphysical components is not unique at late times. The framework yields explicit falsification criteria and makes near-term predictions testable with Stage-IV surveys, including tomographic ordering and cross-correlation recovery. If confirmed, the results imply that current dark-sector parameter estimates should be interpreted as upper bounds under finite-access protocols. If falsified, they strengthen the case for genuinely new physics. Either outcome advances precision cosmology. Keywords Cosmology $S_8$ tension Weak gravitational lensing Cosmic microwave background Large-scale structure Parameter inference Identifiability Fisher information Survey systematics Projection effects Mode mixing Dark matter Dark energy Precision cosmology