Modeling Nonlinear between Child Malnutrition and Education in Africa: A Panel Threshold Model

This study examines how child malnutrition shapes lower secondary completion rates across 35 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1990 and 2024, paying particular attention to the nonlinear of this relationship. Anchored in human capital theory, the educational production function, and insights from cognitive neuroscience, the analysis highlights the multiple channels through which nutritional deprivation undermines learning, from impaired cognitive development to reduced school participation and weakened educational systems. Applying Hansen’s (1999) Panel Threshold Regression, the study uncovers a critical malnutrition threshold (𝛾̂= 4.37%), beyond which the negative effect on educational attainment intensifies almost sixfold. Empirically, lower secondary completion rates (LSCR) drop from an average of 50.7% in the moderate-malnutrition regime to just 31.8% once the threshold is crossed (R² = 0.67). Robustness checks across specifications and subperiods confirm the stability of this nonlinearity. The findings demonstrate that even moderate malnutrition severely undermines learning performance, further amplifying existing educational disparities. Policy simulations further indicate that reducing malnutrition specifically above the identified threshold produces educational gains nearly six times greater than uniform national interventions. Taken together, these findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated action across health and education sectors. They also highlight the importance of geographically targeted nutrition strategies to accelerate progress toward SDG 2 (Zero Hunger) and SDG 4 (Quality Education).