Falsifiable Predictions for the 3I/ATLAS Encounter with Jupiter's Hill Sphere: Testing Natural versus Anomalous Scenarios
Abstract
Pre-registered falsifiable predictions for the interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS encounter with Jupiter's Hill sphere on March 16, 2026. The object will pass at 53.56 million km from Jupiter, coinciding with the Hill radius (53.502 million km) with 0.11% precision. This paper establishes five independently testable predictions: 1. Jet intensity should decrease as r^(-n) where n > 22. Gravitational deflection: 224 ± 10 arcsec (Δv = 72 ± 5 m/s)3. Non-gravitational acceleration should decrease 10-100× from perihelion4. Jets should activate/deactivate sharply with illumination changes5. Polarization should evolve toward less negative values Quantitative thresholds distinguish standard cometary physics from potentially anomalous behavior. Pre-registration ensures predictions are documented before the event (OSF: https://osf.io/2n9fg).
Fields of Study & Subjects
Astro and Planetary Science
Space Satellite Systems and Control
Stellar
planetary
and galactic studies
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Publication date
- 19 January 2026
- Document type
- Preprint