Vietnam Economic Pulse Index (VEPI): A State-Based Indicator Using Publicly Available Data

This paper proposes and empirically illustrates the Vietnam Economic Pulse Index (VEPI) as a state-based indicator designed to monitor short-term economic momentum and business cycle phases using publicly available macroeconomic data. VEPI is constructed as a composite index that integrates five key pillars of the economy, including production, consumption, prices, the external sector, and financial stability, and employs a discrete, rule-based scoring approach to enhance transparency and interpretability. An empirical application to Vietnam over the period 2015–2025 shows that VEPI captures major cyclical phases of the economy, including the sharp contraction during the COVID-19 shock in 2020, the subsequent recovery, and the cyclical slowdown observed in 2023. A comparison with real GDP growth indicates a moderate positive co-movement in terms of business cycle phases, even though VEPI is not designed as a growth forecasting tool. These findings support the role of VEPI as a timely state indicator that complements conventional macroeconomic aggregates characterized by significant reporting lags, and highlight its potential usefulness for short-term economic monitoring and policy discussion in emerging economies