Food Inflation, Household Consumption Behaviour and Health Outcomes in Nigeria

This study explores how rising food inflation and shifts in household consumption patterns affect health outcomes in Nigeria. Using data from the World Bank (1980–2023) and applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research looks at both short- and long-term effects. Results from the unit root tests show a mix of integration levels, with GDP stationary at level, while inflation, consumption, and health outcomes become stationary after first differencing. The analysis confirms a long-run relationship between the variables. In the short term, inflation appears to slightly improve health outcomes (by 0.003%), but over time, particularly after a three-year lag; it begins to have a negative impact. Household consumption follows the opposite pattern, showing both immediate and delayed negative effects (0.005% and 0.05%). However, when food inflation and consumption patterns interact, their combined effect on health outcomes becomes more positive in the short run, 1.24%, 0.84%, and 0.44% over three years. The study also finds that changes in consumption behavior predict changes in health outcomes (Granger causality, p = 0.0519). These results suggest that managing food inflation and supporting better household consumption choices are vital steps toward improving public health in the long run.