The Predictive Economy: Towards a Unified Theory of Social Structure and Mental Simulation

Abstract This paper introduces a novel theoretical framework termed the "Predictive Economy," which bridges the chasm between predictive processing in cognitive science and structural dynamics in sociology. We posit that social hierarchies are not merely derivatives of material power or wealth, but emerge from an invisible market trading in Certainty. In this market, social status is the value assigned to individuals possessing high "Predictive Capital" (PC)—the capacity to generate mental models that minimize collective "Informational Tension" (IT). Building on the predictive turn in neuroscience and offering a critical expansion of the Free Energy Principle (FEP), we argue that while FEP adequately explains biological survival through surprise minimization, it faces the "Dark Room Problem" when applied to complex social behavior. The Unified Dynamic Model of Mind (UDMM) resolves this by introducing the "Ideal Attractor" (W_{ideal}), shifting the systemic telos from mere homeostasis to existential synchronization. Furthermore, the paper delineates how "Status Amplifiers" (resources, narratives, signals) can decouple status from actual predictive accuracy, leading to the accumulation of suppressed entropy and precipitating sudden social phase transitions.