The Sudesh–Ashwani Model: A New Paradigm for Climate-Resilient Flood Management in India

India is entering a critical juncture in its climate trajectory, with intensifying hydro-meteorological extremes threatening both mountain and plain ecosystems. The 2025 Punjab floods, following record-breaking monsoon rainfall, exemplify the chain of vulnerabilities where upstream Himalayan cloudbursts and landslides cascade into downstream stagnation and widespread inundation. Conventional hydrological approaches, which treat mountain runoff and plain flooding as isolated phenomena, are inadequate for this evolving crisis. We present the Sudesh–Ashwani Model (SA Model)—a new paradigm for integrated flood management in India. Formally termed the Physics-Informed Hyperlocal Early-warning and Resilience Optimization (PHERO) framework, the SA Model couples four innovations: (i) probabilistic rainfall nowcasting using radar physics, satellite precipitation, and gauge bias correction; (ii) hydrologic–hydraulic routing to propagate Himalayan runoff into floodplains; (iii) a percolation-based urban sponge module that quantifies infiltration thresholds in heterogeneous landscapes; and (iv) an optimization engine that prescribes cost-effective interventions under budgetary constraints. Applied to Chamoli district in Uttarakhand (source zone) and Ludhiana district in Punjab (sink zone), the SA Model reconstructs 2023 flood extents with higher fidelity than IMERG-driven baselines. Analysis reveals a critical urban permeable fraction of ~30%, beyond which inundation probability declines by up to 40%. Scenario testing further shows that slope stabilization in Uttarakhand reduces downstream flooding in Punjab by ~15% during extreme monsoon events. By uniting physics-based forecasting, percolation thresholds, and resilience optimization, the Sudesh–Ashwani Model shifts flood management from reactive relief to proactive prevention. It provides both a theoretical breakthrough and a practical decision-support tool, transforming climate risk into measurable design targets for India’s most vulnerable regions.