Irreversible Thresholds in Critical Mineral Systems: A Concave Reference Analysis of Decision Timing and Structural Lock-In

This article extends the Irreclimate framework and the ConcaveFrame reference system to the domain of critical minerals.Building on previous work on irreversible climate thresholds, decision timing and human-centered planetary representation, it demonstrates that mineral crises are rarely driven by geological scarcity alone. Instead, they emerge from delayed detection of irreversible functional thresholds across ecological, territorial, technological and geopolitical systems. By applying a concave, internal reference frame to mineral systems, this paper shows how identical datasets can reveal irreversible lock-ins significantly earlier than conventional approaches, enabling decisions while meaningful degrees of freedom still exist.