生存并非天经地义: 黑暗森林隐喻下的职业演化、判断坍塌与 CESI 社会物理学

Abstract As artificial intelligence increasingly restructures labor markets and organizational intelligence, prevailing narratives often frame occupational displacement as a problem of insufficient technical skill or inadequate AI collaboration capability. This paper challenges that assumption through a civilization-scale metaphor grounded in The Dark Forest Theory from The Three-Body Problem, and formalized within the Co-Evolutionary Science of Intelligence (CESI) framework. By analyzing historical transitions from industrial automation to platform-based labor, and extending the analysis to contemporary AI-augmented white-collar work, this study argues that displacement is not driven by tool illiteracy, but by Judgment Loop Displacement (JLD)—the structural erosion of human Irreversibility-Weighted Judgment Loops (IWJL) within specific Judgment-Centric Epistemic Niches (J-CEN). The paper further situates the current era as a Cognitive Split Era (CSE), characterized by irreversible divergence in cognitive architectures and judgment-bearing capacity, leading to Cognitive Species Divergence (CSD). Within this context, “career security” is reframed as a non-normative, non-guaranteed state governed by irreversibility-first dynamics rather than fairness or entitlement. Through a synthesis of CESI theory, social physics, and science-fiction metaphor, this work proposes that occupational survival under AI is fundamentally a question of judgment authority and irreversibility management, not efficiency, productivity, or AI tool adoption.