A Nova Geometria do Poder e da Soberania: Uma Análise Estratégica da Transformação Logística do Brasil pelo Arco Norte

🧠 Abstract This report examines the structural transformation of Brazil’s export logistics through the consolidation of the Arco Norte corridor as the primary agricultural outlet. The study analyzes historical path dependence on southeastern ports (Santos and Paranaguá), the economic rationality behind the northward logistical shift, and the integration of port, road, and river systems. Using 2024 export data as a validation benchmark, the report demonstrates the statistical consolidation of the Arco Norte in both soybean and corn exports, while exposing structural vulnerabilities linked to climate volatility, hydrological dependency, institutional uncertainty, and socio-environmental conflicts. The analysis compares Brazil’s model with the Mississippi River system in the United States, highlighting efficiency gaps caused by limited railway redundancy and dependence on long-haul trucking. The study further explores prospective scenarios (2025–2035) and evaluates the strategic implications of the Ferrogrão project (EF-170) for cost reduction and logistical resilience. The report concludes that while the Arco Norte has resolved Brazil’s geographic inefficiency problem, it has introduced systemic volatility risks that must be mitigated through infrastructure redundancy, hydrological engineering, and institutional stabilization. 🏛 Affiliation Independent ResearcherGlobal Energy & Industrial Systems AnalysisBased in Brazil | Open to collaboration across APAC, EU and LatAm