Unlocking Fiscal Potential in ASEAN: Cross-Country Evidence and Policy Reflections for Vietnam

ABSTRACT: Amid deepening international integration and increasing fiscal stability challenges, identifying the determinants of tax revenue is crucial for Vietnam to improve fiscal efficiency and achieve sustainable socio-economic development. This paper investigates novel cross-country empirical evidence by investigating the determinants of tax revenue in seven ASEAN countries (2015 - 2023). Employing a Fixed Effects Model (FEM) for regression analysis, the study finds that agricultural development, trade openness, and the relative expansion of service sectors exert a positive influence on tax revenue across the region. In contrast, population growth is found to have a statistically significant negative impact on tax revenue during the examined period. The study’s perspective offers new insights that contrast and complement current literature on Vietnam and ASEAN. Policy recommendations include strengthening green agriculture, high value services, trade facilitation, and efficient population management. In parallel, an enabling environment is needed to deepen value chain integration and expand domestic and export markets for green agricultural products, is expected not only to foster a modern, sustainable, and climate resilient agricultural sector, but also to create a more stable and expanding tax revenue for Vietnam and other emerging economies.