Judgment as Deterrence - The Dark Forest Logic of Occupational and Organizational Survival

Abstract This paper examines professional evolution through the lens of deterrence theory, using The Three-Body Problem as a civilizational metaphor and CESI Social Physics as the analytical framework. It argues that modern career systems no longer reward skill accumulation or moral integrity, but instead select for deterrence positioning within opaque organizational architectures. As professional judgment is progressively displaced by structural incentives, individuals evolve from decision-makers into risk-bearing executors. This paper formalizes how deterrence mechanisms reshape career trajectories, how Judgment Loop Displacement (JLD) emerges at the occupational level, and why apparent professional success increasingly correlates with reduced judgment sovereignty rather than enhanced competence.