Macroeconomic, Psychosocial, and Political Determinants of Road Traffic Fatalities in Jamaica: An ARIMAX Time-Series Analysis (2007–2024)

Road traffic fatalities (RTFs) constitute a major public health concern in Jamaica, imposing substantial social and economic burdens. This study examines the macroeconomic, psychosocial, and political determinants of RTFs in Jamaica from 2007 to 2024 using an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables (ARIMAX) approach. The dependent variable was annual RTFs, while independent variables included GDP per capita (logged), unemployment, inflation, exchange rate (logged), suicide rate, and governance (JLP = 1, PNP = 0). Descriptive analysis indicated fluctuating fatalities across the study period, with peaks in 2019 (440 deaths) and troughs in 2012 (260 deaths), alongside an overall increase in GDP per capita, a decline in unemployment, and variable inflation rates. The ARIMAX model incorporated one autoregressive (AR(1)) and one moving average (MA(1)) term to account for temporal dependence. Results demonstrated that suicide rate was the only statistically significant predictor of road traffic fatalities (β = 0.77, p = 0.047), highlighting the influence of psychosocial distress on traffic mortality. While GDP, unemployment, inflation, exchange rate, and governance were not significant predictors, their observed trends provide context for policy interpretation. These findings suggest that public health interventions aimed at reducing RTFs should integrate mental health initiatives and psychosocial support alongside traditional road safety measures. The study contributes to the understanding of structural determinants of traffic fatalities in Jamaica and underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches combining economic, political, and psychosocial strategies to mitigate preventable deaths on the nation’s roads.