A Generalized Dynamical Model of Social Success and Its Empirical Consistency

We propose a generalized phenomenological model for social success based on resource in- vestment, individual ability growth, and increasing social demand driven by attention and com- petition. Success is formalized as a non-equilibrium phenomenon. By assuming power-law dynamics for attention, social demand, and individual ability, we derive explicit conditions for growth, stagnation, and decline. Assuming a Gaussian distribution of talent, the model predicts that only a small fraction of participants can succeed in highly competitive domains. These predictions are shown to be consistent with empirical observations in music, academic research, and other competitive fields.