Expectation Shock and Transient Success: Applications to Idols, Viral Content, and Academic Careers

We apply the threshold control framework and the effort effect to three representative do- mains: idols, viral online content, and academic researchers. Despite their apparent differences, these systems share a common structural mechanism. Rapid or discontinuous increases in social expectation generate expectation shocks that elevate the minimum talent threshold. Transient success, post-peak collapse, and selective survival emerge as natural consequences of threshold dynamics rather than individual failure.