Threshold-Driven Strategy Switching under Mortality Risk: Survival-Weighted Payoffs and Discontinuous Behavioral Transitions (v1.1)

Abstract This preprint proposes a threshold-driven model of strategy switching under mortality risk. We formalize survival-weighted payoffs via a survival gate s(D) that compresses future-dependent value as hazard increases, yielding discontinuous regime shifts in behavior. The model predicts an intermediate-risk “information-sensitive” zone in which deception and interference strategies peak, and a high-risk regime in which short-horizon, exposure-minimizing policies dominate. We provide falsifiable predictions and an executable analysis plan for detecting changepoints and regime hinges in empirical proxies. Version: v1.1 Correspondence: Yongming Yuan (richardyuan2020@gmail.com)