A Phenomenological Model of Social Success: Field Selection, Harmful Effort, and the Role of Intellectual Humility

We propose a phenomenological model of social success based on a scalar success index Q. The model explicitly incorporates individual effort, ability growth, social expectations, and self- imposed expectations. We show that success is not determined by effort alone, but by the relative scaling between ability growth and expectation growth. We derive conditions for optimal field selection, identify structural conditions under which effort becomes harmful (“black” environ- ments), and demonstrate that intellectual humility acts as a control parameter that stabilizes long-term success.