330 MW Thermal Power Plant Development in Kumasi, Ghana A Financial Viability and Sensitivity Analysis Using FINPLAN

Ghana has made significant progress in electricity access, reaching approximately 89.5% nationwide. However, rising electricity demand, system reliability challenges, and reserve margins below international best practice continue to pressure the power system. This study evaluates the financial viability of a proposed 330 MW thermal power plant in Kumasi using the FINPLAN model, with particular focus on tariff adequacy and exchange rate risk. The analysis finds that a minimum electricity tariff of approximately GHS1.01 /kWh is required to ensure both project viability and bankability, maintaining a debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) of at least 1.3 and positive net present value (NPV). Sensitivity analysis further shows that the project remains bankable up to about 15% annual exchange rate depreciation, beyond which debt-servicing capacity deteriorates. The results highlight the importance of cost-reflective tariffs and exchange-rate risk management to attract generation investment and sustain reliable electricity supply. Policy recommendations include adopting realistic tariff setting and introducing mechanisms to mitigate foreign exchange risk