CRIS Predictions: Falsifiable Constraints on Identity Persistence and Alignment Stability

This preregistration enumerates a set of falsifiable predictions derived from the CRIS framework (Consistency, Recursion, Invariance, Selection). The predictions span physical, biological, cognitive, semantic, and artificial systems and assert that identity persistence is governed by measurable contraction dynamics, invariant preservation, and bounded recursion depth. The document specifies empirical tests and explicit falsification criteria for each claim. A second section applies CRIS to artificial general intelligence alignment, predicting sharp phase transitions in alignment behavior, deception collapse under contraction constraints, early-warning signals for self-preservation, and architecture-level guarantees independent of reward shaping or prompt-based methods. Any single verified counterexample falsifies CRIS as a universal constraint framework.