A Threshold-Based Theory of Success in Strict Societies: Field Maturity, Attention Scaling, and Time-Accelerated Difficulty

We propose a phenomenological theory of success in strict societies based on a success index Q. The model distinguishes between an ability threshold (professional level) and a success threshold, both governed by social attention. By introducing a field maturity parameter and its time-dependent acceleration, we show that success is structurally easier in niche or immature fields and becomes asymptotically impossible in highly mature fields regardless of individual effort. The theory explains the prevalence of niche success, early success, and one-hit wonders, as well as the systematic failure of late entrants in mature domains.